There was a press conference this morning to update the flood forecast: "The powder keg is bigger and the fuse is shorter."
Here are the percentages and other pertinent data:
15 feet - current level (relatively high for this time of year)
17 feet - flood stage
30 feet - major flood stage, 96% chance (up from 86% 3 weeks ago)
37 feet - "uncomfortably high", 70%
38 feet - 50%
41 feet - above last year's record, street level in front of my house, 25%
Next forecast is scheduled for March 5th.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Friday, February 12, 2010
The Coming Flood of 2010
Flood preparations are getting started early this year, with last year's record event still fresh in mind. Every epic flood is unique, but so far we are tracking on par with 1997 and 2009 floods in terms of moisture available for flooding. Moisture the rest of the winter and the melt rate are the big unknowns. Per a decision made last year, I bought flood insurance today even though we live outside the 500 year flood plain. Last year's flood made the unthinkable thinkable. I don't want insurance coverage to factor into an evacuation decision.
We had a very wet October leading to a record fall flood in November. December and January had heavy snowfalls and so here we sit on the powder keg. A few weeks ago, there was an 85% chance of a major flood, which we can handle to a point. There was a 10% chance of something as bad as last year or worse.
I use the past tense because we've added about 1.5" of moisture on top of the snowpack since then. The next flood forecast is scheduled for February 19th. In the mean time, the city is looking for heated sandbag storage and wants to get 1 million bags ready. It is locating sand and clay reserves for bagging and diking. The North Dakota National Guard is making preparations. Other than sign up for flood insurance, not booking travel in April, and checking out the new city flood web site, I haven't done anything to prepare. That will change as peak river levels are better estimated and if that target approaches 100 year levels or worse.
We had a very wet October leading to a record fall flood in November. December and January had heavy snowfalls and so here we sit on the powder keg. A few weeks ago, there was an 85% chance of a major flood, which we can handle to a point. There was a 10% chance of something as bad as last year or worse.
I use the past tense because we've added about 1.5" of moisture on top of the snowpack since then. The next flood forecast is scheduled for February 19th. In the mean time, the city is looking for heated sandbag storage and wants to get 1 million bags ready. It is locating sand and clay reserves for bagging and diking. The North Dakota National Guard is making preparations. Other than sign up for flood insurance, not booking travel in April, and checking out the new city flood web site, I haven't done anything to prepare. That will change as peak river levels are better estimated and if that target approaches 100 year levels or worse.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
The Apple iPad (part 5 : Tablets in Science Fiction)
by Dakota Noel
My friend Jim sent me a link on a tablet (iPad-like device) in the Arthur C Clark novel 2001: A Space Odyssey (movie 1968). The linked page has a picture of the device which was to be used to watch TV and read newspapers etc.
That got me thinking about tablets and bookish elements of science fiction, the genre I spent much time reading in the 1970s, particularly on warm summer afternoons in my un-air-conditioned room.
The device in Urhura's hand looks to be about 3-4 inches thick, compared to iPad's 0.5 inch. The other dimensions might be pushing 8.5 x 11 inches. Throw in a big stylus and two big light bulbs. As vacuum tubes were starting to be replaced by discreet transisters, the idea of a device even this thin was probably a big stretch of the imagination. Integrated circuits were just being developed and the first primitive microprocessors were several years away.
My friend Jim sent me a link on a tablet (iPad-like device) in the Arthur C Clark novel 2001: A Space Odyssey (movie 1968). The linked page has a picture of the device which was to be used to watch TV and read newspapers etc.
That got me thinking about tablets and bookish elements of science fiction, the genre I spent much time reading in the 1970s, particularly on warm summer afternoons in my un-air-conditioned room.
One of the most memorable books was Ray Bradbury 's Martian Chronicles (1950) which includes the following prose
February 2030
Ylla
They had a house of crystal pillars on the planet Mars by the edge of an empty sea, and every morning you could see Mrs. K eating the golden fruits that grew from the crystal walls, or cleaning the house with handfuls of magnetic dust which, taking all dirt with it, blew away on the hot wind. Afternoons, when the fossil sea was warm and motionless, and the wine trees stood stiff in the yard, and the little distant Martian bone town was all enclosed, and no one drifted out their doors, you could see Mr. K himself in his room, reading from a metal book with raised hieroglyphs over which he brushed his hand, as one might play a harp. And from the book, as his fingers stroked, a voice sang, a soft ancient voice, which told tales of when the sea was red steam on the shore and ancient men had carried clouds of metal insects and electric spiders into battle.
Mr. and Mrs. K had lived by the dead sea for twenty years, and their ancestors had lived in the same house, which turned and followed the sun, flower-like, for ten centuries.
Mr. and Mrs. K were not old. They had the fair, brownish skin of the true Martian, the yellow coin eyes, the soft musical voices. Once they had liked painting pictures with chemical fire, swimming in the canals in the seasons when the wine trees filled them with green liquors, and talking into the dawn together by the blue phosphorous portraits in the speaking room.
Quite different from the Mars we know today, but the image of Mr K reading his book is one that has stayed with me for 35 years.
Also by Ray Bradbury is Fahrenheit 451 (1953) which tells of a fireman (book burner) who started reading books he was supposed to be burning. It would seem there is an opportunity for an updated version of the tale considering current society and technology trajectories. On the technology side, as books change from tangible collections of pages to a small number of bits on a chip, their hiding becomes much easier and the concept of burning obsolete. That leads to a separate train of discussion.
February 2030
Ylla
They had a house of crystal pillars on the planet Mars by the edge of an empty sea, and every morning you could see Mrs. K eating the golden fruits that grew from the crystal walls, or cleaning the house with handfuls of magnetic dust which, taking all dirt with it, blew away on the hot wind. Afternoons, when the fossil sea was warm and motionless, and the wine trees stood stiff in the yard, and the little distant Martian bone town was all enclosed, and no one drifted out their doors, you could see Mr. K himself in his room, reading from a metal book with raised hieroglyphs over which he brushed his hand, as one might play a harp. And from the book, as his fingers stroked, a voice sang, a soft ancient voice, which told tales of when the sea was red steam on the shore and ancient men had carried clouds of metal insects and electric spiders into battle.
Mr. and Mrs. K had lived by the dead sea for twenty years, and their ancestors had lived in the same house, which turned and followed the sun, flower-like, for ten centuries.
Mr. and Mrs. K were not old. They had the fair, brownish skin of the true Martian, the yellow coin eyes, the soft musical voices. Once they had liked painting pictures with chemical fire, swimming in the canals in the seasons when the wine trees filled them with green liquors, and talking into the dawn together by the blue phosphorous portraits in the speaking room.
Quite different from the Mars we know today, but the image of Mr K reading his book is one that has stayed with me for 35 years.
Also by Ray Bradbury is Fahrenheit 451 (1953) which tells of a fireman (book burner) who started reading books he was supposed to be burning. It would seem there is an opportunity for an updated version of the tale considering current society and technology trajectories. On the technology side, as books change from tangible collections of pages to a small number of bits on a chip, their hiding becomes much easier and the concept of burning obsolete. That leads to a separate train of discussion.
HG Wells and Jules Verne knew only paper. The Enterprise of the first Star Trek pilot had paper which was replaced by the tri-corder and an unnamed administrative tablet which would be handed by an attractive yeoman to Captain Kirk for a signature.
The device in Urhura's hand looks to be about 3-4 inches thick, compared to iPad's 0.5 inch. The other dimensions might be pushing 8.5 x 11 inches. Throw in a big stylus and two big light bulbs. As vacuum tubes were starting to be replaced by discreet transisters, the idea of a device even this thin was probably a big stretch of the imagination. Integrated circuits were just being developed and the first primitive microprocessors were several years away.In postulating technology trajectories, I wonder how far off the mark my arrows will fall...
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