The Flood That Fizzled

...and I'm not complaining.

Heading into the last full week of April, temps were still at 32 F +/- 10 degrees, there was a lot of snow on the ground, and preparations were underway for a record flood. The storm track moved south and east and we the Red River watershed missed getting a few more inches of water equivalent into the equation. The other thing that played out was the topsoil was able to melt, enabling a lot of water to sink into the dry soil below.

About midweek, the river final got above flood stage in Fargo and the crest predictions started dropping with new estimates every few days. Dike locations and heights were scaled back as the predictions dropped. The record for latest first day above 50 F was broken and within two days, had zoomed past 60 F into the low 70s F. Of course that didn't last long and it has been cooler again this week. This past winter we had 68 inches of snow on the ground for over 150 days.

While the river crested on May 1, setting a record for latest snow-melt crest by a nearly two weeks, the 33.32 ft level ended up #12 on the historic list vs the previously expected 1-5 position. It didn't even top the El Zagal golf course dike. Staged sandbags are being removed and put into storage (we'll have over a million carry-over) and clay dikes will be coming down as the river is now dropping below 30 feet. Things should be in good shape for the Fargo Marathon in 2 weeks as part of the route was covered in 6+ feet of clay or underwater.

Unless something dramaticly changes, this will be my last flood post for the year. Below are some pictures capturing the 2013 rise of the Red in my neighborhood. The first three pictures are along the El Zagal dike looking south. The "Watch for flying golf balls" is a good reference point for comparison. The top of the fence on the right is at about 35 feet and the dike behind it at 34 feet. The final picture is the 12th Ave North toll bridge near crest looking east to Minnesota. Not the log accumulation to the right of the bridge.

Inching Up

The snow pack is a little smaller and denser. The Red River has inched upward. This is supposed to be the week when everything changes.

We continue to be stuck in a mode with temps 10 F above or below freezing. The highest temp of the year, back in March, continues to be 43 F. Average is now 60 F. The gas & electric bill I paid last weekend stated that for the billing period, temps average 25 F lower than last years record warm. We've had cold, brisk winds and a few showers. April has been the snowiest month of the winter of 2012-2013.

A warming trend is supposed to start this week, leading to our first 45 F day Thursday; our first 55 F day on Friday, and our first 65 F day on Sunday. The snow should be mostly melted and heading to the Red. Today the NWS issued it's first deterministic flood forecast today with the river rising 16 feet by next Monday. A crest prediction is supposed to be issued later in the week.

Round 2 of sandbag filling continues with the goal of an additional 500,000 bags. Clay and trapbag dike construction started today. Sandbag dikes will be going up starting Thursday. A number of streets receiving dikes have been closed. It seems so routine, but it's been the drill 4 of the last 5 years.

The Long Winter, The Big Flood

Laura Ingalls Wilder's book The Long Winter is set in DeSmet, South Dakota in the winter of 1880-81. While the author took some literary license with the weather, it was historically a long winter on the Northern Plains. In Fargo, the record for latest date to have the first 50+ F degree temperature was set on April 17, 1881. A long-time record which has held until today and a new record this year which will be extended every day for at least a week.

Our first snow this winter occurred the first week of October and we have had continuous snow on the ground since December. Our warmest day so far in 2013 has been 43 F and our last day with an above average temperature was back on March 9 - five weeks ago. We are currently running about 20 degrees below average. The photos below show our yard in mid-March and again in mid-April. There is little difference. Little moisture has evaporated and the moisture of the snowpack has increased.

March 17, 2013

April 15, 2013

Today the National Weather Service issued a new flood forecast. Maybe guestimate is a better word since we are operating outside their models with a record late snow-melt flood. That "latest" record will be broken in two days, the Red River having risen only inches since some melting started weeks ago. That record could be extended by two weeks into May.

What has melted so far has been replaced and supplement by new snows...stormy snows and odd snows. For example, it has been snowing lightly all day, but not accumulating and actually causing steam to rise off blacktop streets and parking lots in spite of clouds blocking much of the August-intensity sun. It was eerie.

So in the forecast a month ago, we had a 50-50 chance of a #5 historic flood. The numbers have bumped up  as shown below.

      42.4 ft given 5% probability on 4/17/13
(1) 40.84 ft on 03/28/2009 (given 40% chance of being exceeded on 4/17/13)
      40.3 ft given 50-50 probability on 4/17/13
(2) 39.72 ft on 04/18/1997
      39.3  ft given 95% probability on 4/17/13
(3) 39.10 ft on 04/07/1897
(4) 38.81 ft on 04/09/2011
      38.00 ft given 50-50 odds for 2013 back in March
(5) 37.34 ft on 04/15/1969

Flood fighting in Fargo is like protecting a toilet bowl: up to a certain point, there are minimal problems. After a certain point, overflowing occurs almost everywhere. At 38 feet, with a few clay and sandbag dikes, things are still in the bowl. At 42.4 feet, much more needs to be built up including my neighborhood. 42.4 feet would be just feet away from my house. We will be seeing protection of some kind going up at the end of the street as we have in past years. I haven't heard if it will be a clay dike or another form of barrier. Sandbag Central re-opens on Thursday with a quota of at least another 500,000 bags. At some point, high schoolers and other volunteers will be asked to assist in their placement.

Since the 1997 flood, there has been steady progress in buying homes in the lowest areas and putting in permanent dikes. The need for temporary clay and sandbags and dikes is much less than it was in 1997 and 2009. Still, there is an element of stress as it looks like the river will go above 40 feet which is the level of the sidewalk around the golf course at the end of the street.

This weekend I plan to do some initial preparation for the flood: getting a new sump pump back-up battery and making sure the check valve and gate valve in our sewer are ready if needed. There are three ways water can attack our house: overland flooding, seepage, and sewer backup. Flood waters are unlikely to reach our house given the forecast and the presence of a barrier, but a heavy rain and a barrier failure could change that quickly. It seems odd that a couple months ago I momentarily considered not renewing flood insurance after a dry year and a then-to-date average winter. Seepage is only a problem if our sump goes out and sewer back-up is handled by the two valves.

If the sewer system gets dicey or water gets high enough to reach the house if a barrier fails, we will look at additional steps like bringing things upstairs from the basement and preparing for evacuation. People can look at my 2009 flood blog to see what that scenario looks like. My feelings are not of anxiety such as I experienced at points in 1997 and 2009, but more a depressed "here we go again".

Another One for the Record Books...Maybe

Two weeks ago I was having coffee with friends when one asked about my flood blog. I hadn't really thought about it much since the last flood forecast put the 50-50 flood crest at 32 feet, but a revised forecast was due out the next day. The weather service had hinted a revision upward due to two blizzards and a lack of melting due to cold temperatures. That hint was substantiated the next day with a new 50-50 crest at 38 feet and a 10% chance of 41 feet. The 38 foot crest would be #5 in the record book and 41 feet would be a new record (flood stage is 18 feet).

In 2012, we had no flood and the year itself was pretty dry. Snow fall has been just a pinch above normal this winter, but nothing ominous. I had toyed with the idea of not sending in my flood insurance check back in February, but am glad I did with the reasoning that "things could change quickly". While the ground is still dry, late fall rains and then frost have sealed off that capacity for the immediate future. The snow pack, due to lack of thaws this winter, has the highest moisture content on record. The remaining variables are how quickly it gets warm and how much additional precipitation we get.

The worst case scenario is that the 3-7 inches of water in the upper watershed snow pack gets quickly released by temps in the 50s F and heavy rains from thunderstorms. The best case is a long, slow thaw with temps below freezing at night and reaching 40 F during the day. So far we have had the later, at least for a few days when it has gotten above freezing. However, the main effect has been for the surface snow to melt and the water to drop into the remaining snowpack. Not much water has been moving in the country and the river has been keeping at a pretty constant 15 feet (3 feet below flood stage). The picture below was taken a couple weeks ago, but the main change has only been in the ice coming off the river. In a 38 foot flood, all the land in the picture would be covered by water.

After the revised flood forecast, the city got the wheels in motion for flood fighting. Sandbag Central is running with a production goal of 100,000 sandbags/day until 1,000,000 are made to join carry-over inventory of about 250,000 bags. Middle schoolers have been enlisted to make a significant number of this week's production and higher schoolers will be called on to man the sandbag lines as needed with other volunteers.

The total sandbags needed for the 38 foot level is much reduced from past years as the city continues to buy out homes in low areas and install permanent dikes. If the worst case scenario plays out, additional bags may be needed as sandbag dikes are increased in height in concert with new predictions.