By Dakota Noel
The river has been high all winter and today creeped above 18 feet river gage, the current definition of flood stage (old flood stage was 17 feet). About the only impact at that level is that a bike path near my house is underwater. The river will likely rise another 20+ feet to crest.
Today a Hesco flood barrier was installed on the west side of the El Zagel golf course. It went up fast and with less labor than the traditional sandbag dike. Sandbags will start getting delivered to neighborhoods that need them later this week. They typically go into back yards where clay dikes and other water barriers are not feasible.
Pictures and more info on flood preparations later.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Saturday, March 26, 2011
A Worse Flood Forcast
by Dakota Noel
Our coming flood pales in comparison to the quake, tsunami, and nuclear events in Japan. A 30 foot tsunami on the Red River would be well up the walls of our house and probably would have knocked it off the foundation. The 30 minute warning would have only been enough to evacuate, not prepare and pack. My thoughts and prayers continue to be with Japan.
The last two weeks here have included a week of nice snow melting with temps in the mid-40s F followed by a relapse of winter this week. A storm on Tuesday night dropped 8 inches of heavier snow in Fargo and 1.1 inches of total precipitation when rain and sleet were included. We now have the 4th snowiest winter on record and are only 0.1 inches below the 3rd snowiest.
The temps then dropped to 0 F at night and have only been getting back to the mid-20s F during the day. Still, the late March sun has been able to do some melting. It is forecast to be a few degrees warmer this coming week. There has been some overland (non-river) flooding and some flooding on tributaries, but the Red River hasn't risen much yet. It slowly approaching flood stage. We saw our first robin this evening.
Until this week, the March precipitation had been within the previous models. After the latest storm, snow pack moisture content was measured at sample points and the models re-run. The results were a worse flood than previously predicted. The probability is now 60% that the river will reach 39.9 feet. This puts it at the sidewalk on the south side of the El Zagel golf course at the end of our street. There is a 40% chance of a new record at 41 feet which is the height of the street at the end of our driveway.
A lone stick with a ribbon stands at the end of the street. We think it marks a survey point for the clay dike that will likely be built there. Clay dike construction has begun in the lowest areas and will proceed to higher areas. The flood wall has been closed at 15th Ave North and Elm Street. Other flood barriers are also going up.
Next week's thaw will be pretty slow since the temps will only make it to the lower 30s F during the day. There may be some precipitation later in the week. All together, we are probably at least two weeks from a crest. This will be a later flood as in 1997. The last storm of that epic winter was about April 7th and was arguably the worse of the storms that winter.
Our coming flood pales in comparison to the quake, tsunami, and nuclear events in Japan. A 30 foot tsunami on the Red River would be well up the walls of our house and probably would have knocked it off the foundation. The 30 minute warning would have only been enough to evacuate, not prepare and pack. My thoughts and prayers continue to be with Japan.
The last two weeks here have included a week of nice snow melting with temps in the mid-40s F followed by a relapse of winter this week. A storm on Tuesday night dropped 8 inches of heavier snow in Fargo and 1.1 inches of total precipitation when rain and sleet were included. We now have the 4th snowiest winter on record and are only 0.1 inches below the 3rd snowiest.
The temps then dropped to 0 F at night and have only been getting back to the mid-20s F during the day. Still, the late March sun has been able to do some melting. It is forecast to be a few degrees warmer this coming week. There has been some overland (non-river) flooding and some flooding on tributaries, but the Red River hasn't risen much yet. It slowly approaching flood stage. We saw our first robin this evening.
Until this week, the March precipitation had been within the previous models. After the latest storm, snow pack moisture content was measured at sample points and the models re-run. The results were a worse flood than previously predicted. The probability is now 60% that the river will reach 39.9 feet. This puts it at the sidewalk on the south side of the El Zagel golf course at the end of our street. There is a 40% chance of a new record at 41 feet which is the height of the street at the end of our driveway.
A lone stick with a ribbon stands at the end of the street. We think it marks a survey point for the clay dike that will likely be built there. Clay dike construction has begun in the lowest areas and will proceed to higher areas. The flood wall has been closed at 15th Ave North and Elm Street. Other flood barriers are also going up.
Next week's thaw will be pretty slow since the temps will only make it to the lower 30s F during the day. There may be some precipitation later in the week. All together, we are probably at least two weeks from a crest. This will be a later flood as in 1997. The last storm of that epic winter was about April 7th and was arguably the worse of the storms that winter.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Winter Revisted
by Dakota Noel
It has been a stormy week with three snowfalls and temps ranging from sub-zero to +40 F. Last night we had a blizzard which in Fargo only dropped an inch of snow, but in open areas caused major white outs. Total snow for the week was about 7 inches, but it was fairly dry and already factored into the flood models.
Fargo's Sandbag Central suspended operations Friday with 2.4 million sandbags filled. Some areas which were scheduled to get sandbags are now getting clay dikes, so that reduced the need. On the other hand, across the river in Moorehead Minnesota, the latest flood forecast lead to the production target being raised from 1.0 to 1.5 million bags.
Last Friday it was +40 F, tomorrow morning it is supposed to be subzero, and then next week it is to be consistently near +40 F in the afternoons. This weather will have largely the same effect as our last warm spell: surface snow will melt into the snow pack, but the water will not start flowing. The core of the snow pack is still too cold for that.
The above photo shows our back yard. The snow line in the left door pane is the top of the knee-high snow drift just outside the door. The grey thing in the right glass panel between upper and lower snow is the cover of our grill. The patio is a couple steps below the level of the door, but you can see why we won't be grilling for a while.
This second photo is the view out our front door with 4-5 foot high snow piles from the steps out to the street. The snow on the yard is roughly knee deep. Just for reference, the street (not visible) is at 41 feet, the front of the minivan is at 42 feet, and the front door at 43 feet river gage. My hope and prayer is that those numbers don't take on importance in the month of April.
It has been a stormy week with three snowfalls and temps ranging from sub-zero to +40 F. Last night we had a blizzard which in Fargo only dropped an inch of snow, but in open areas caused major white outs. Total snow for the week was about 7 inches, but it was fairly dry and already factored into the flood models.
Fargo's Sandbag Central suspended operations Friday with 2.4 million sandbags filled. Some areas which were scheduled to get sandbags are now getting clay dikes, so that reduced the need. On the other hand, across the river in Moorehead Minnesota, the latest flood forecast lead to the production target being raised from 1.0 to 1.5 million bags.
Last Friday it was +40 F, tomorrow morning it is supposed to be subzero, and then next week it is to be consistently near +40 F in the afternoons. This weather will have largely the same effect as our last warm spell: surface snow will melt into the snow pack, but the water will not start flowing. The core of the snow pack is still too cold for that.
The above photo shows our back yard. The snow line in the left door pane is the top of the knee-high snow drift just outside the door. The grey thing in the right glass panel between upper and lower snow is the cover of our grill. The patio is a couple steps below the level of the door, but you can see why we won't be grilling for a while.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Second Generation Tablets : iPad 2 or Xoom?
I haven't had hands-on experience with either device, but I have been watching developments closely since I'm interested in getting a tablet at some point in time. I have no hurry since I can usually borrow my wife's iPad, but I would like to take the tablet with me for travel, work, etc.
Xoom is better for its openess from being an Android device, but there aren't many apps which take advantage of the larger screen at this time. The larger screen is 1280 x 800, compared to iPads 1024 x 768. I like resolution and I like size. The Xoom rivals the Kindle DX for resolution. The Xoom display is also larger diagonally than iPad, but the iPad 2 is lighter and thinner. Ipad doesn't support Flash.
At this point, I'm planning to wait and watch: to read more hands-on reviews, to try both devices at stores, and to watch for compelling apps (eg Kindle). There are also rumors of a higher resolution iPad coming later this year as well as the next version of the Android operating system ("Ice Cream").
Xoom is better for its openess from being an Android device, but there aren't many apps which take advantage of the larger screen at this time. The larger screen is 1280 x 800, compared to iPads 1024 x 768. I like resolution and I like size. The Xoom rivals the Kindle DX for resolution. The Xoom display is also larger diagonally than iPad, but the iPad 2 is lighter and thinner. Ipad doesn't support Flash.
At this point, I'm planning to wait and watch: to read more hands-on reviews, to try both devices at stores, and to watch for compelling apps (eg Kindle). There are also rumors of a higher resolution iPad coming later this year as well as the next version of the Android operating system ("Ice Cream").
Sunday, March 6, 2011
iPhone or Android Phone?
I was recently asked that question by someone who was in the market. It's really hard to recommend one over the other right now.
I've been generally happy with my Motorola Droid over the past year and would get the Motorola Droid X if I had to get something right this instant. A major reason for going with Android then was the availability on Verizon. Now iPhone is available on Verizon and in a recent Best Buy ad, both phones were $199 with qualifying plan.
Back then, some of my preferred applications weren't available for Android but were "coming soon". They've come and the only thing I really miss is accessing work email via Outlook Web Access. That is a decision of my employer for security reasons. Access is possible through a 3rd party $20 app and signing an agreement with my employer which I didn't like. The other app currently missing on Android for me is streaming movies from Netflix, but not as major as work email.
The iPhone has a higher resolution screen than current Android phones, but that is likely to change this year. The Android phones are easier to connect to another computer for transfering data, music, pictures, etc.
iPhone doesn't have and probably never will have support for Flash. Android does.
So those are the significant differences for me.
I've been generally happy with my Motorola Droid over the past year and would get the Motorola Droid X if I had to get something right this instant. A major reason for going with Android then was the availability on Verizon. Now iPhone is available on Verizon and in a recent Best Buy ad, both phones were $199 with qualifying plan.
Back then, some of my preferred applications weren't available for Android but were "coming soon". They've come and the only thing I really miss is accessing work email via Outlook Web Access. That is a decision of my employer for security reasons. Access is possible through a 3rd party $20 app and signing an agreement with my employer which I didn't like. The other app currently missing on Android for me is streaming movies from Netflix, but not as major as work email.
The iPhone has a higher resolution screen than current Android phones, but that is likely to change this year. The Android phones are easier to connect to another computer for transfering data, music, pictures, etc.
iPhone doesn't have and probably never will have support for Flash. Android does.
So those are the significant differences for me.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
BFMS 8th Graders Rock at Sandbag Central
by Dakota Noel
My youngest daughter and other 8th graders from Ben Franklin Middle School were released from classes for a 5 hour shift at Sandbag Central this week and helped fill a record 90,000+ sandbags during that period. The total has passed 2 million en route to a goal of 3 million bags for Fargo. That's the good news for the week.
Some clay dikes are being constructed in the lowest areas. While dump trucks have been noticeable on 19th Ave North, they haven't dominated traffic as was the case for peak construction rush. A few days ago, there was a clearing of 14th Ave North to get remaining snow and ice off the pavement. We think this was preparation for a 6 foot (2 m) high clay dike which will be constructed there if the river is headed above the 38 foot level (50-50 chance in latest forecast). Snow and ice between the dike and the ground or street base turns to voids as it melts and creates weak spots. Water would touch the dike at the end of our street when the river hits 40 feet or so, currently a 35% chance.
There was an updated flood forecast this week. In summary, the Fargo levels for various probabilities went up by about 6 inches (15 cm) from the last forecast as shown below. This was due mainly to the President's Day storm which featured 10+ inches of snow upstream (south) from Fargo. Weather has been cold since then, so no melting. There is more snow forecast for Sunday night and next week. The heaviest of the precipitation events is forecast to go south of the Red River watershed.
The official timing of the crest is in early to mid April as shown below, but we haven't been warming up. Without a thaw, that timing seems hard to believe. My personal prediction is mid to late April as was the case in 1997. The last storm of that winter was a nasty ice storm and blizzard the first week of April, followed by the melt. April melts are more subject to higher temperatures and rain which would push the crest higher.
My youngest daughter and other 8th graders from Ben Franklin Middle School were released from classes for a 5 hour shift at Sandbag Central this week and helped fill a record 90,000+ sandbags during that period. The total has passed 2 million en route to a goal of 3 million bags for Fargo. That's the good news for the week.
Some clay dikes are being constructed in the lowest areas. While dump trucks have been noticeable on 19th Ave North, they haven't dominated traffic as was the case for peak construction rush. A few days ago, there was a clearing of 14th Ave North to get remaining snow and ice off the pavement. We think this was preparation for a 6 foot (2 m) high clay dike which will be constructed there if the river is headed above the 38 foot level (50-50 chance in latest forecast). Snow and ice between the dike and the ground or street base turns to voids as it melts and creates weak spots. Water would touch the dike at the end of our street when the river hits 40 feet or so, currently a 35% chance.
There was an updated flood forecast this week. In summary, the Fargo levels for various probabilities went up by about 6 inches (15 cm) from the last forecast as shown below. This was due mainly to the President's Day storm which featured 10+ inches of snow upstream (south) from Fargo. Weather has been cold since then, so no melting. There is more snow forecast for Sunday night and next week. The heaviest of the precipitation events is forecast to go south of the Red River watershed.
The official timing of the crest is in early to mid April as shown below, but we haven't been warming up. Without a thaw, that timing seems hard to believe. My personal prediction is mid to late April as was the case in 1997. The last storm of that winter was a nasty ice storm and blizzard the first week of April, followed by the melt. April melts are more subject to higher temperatures and rain which would push the crest higher.
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